Model Parameter estimation for Predictive Medicine

I am delighted to have been invited as a tutor to the Wellcome-Trust funded course on Model Parameter Estimation for Predictive Medicine organized by Sara Jabbari and Joanne Dunster. The course is being held from 4th-7th July at the University of Birmingham and is jointly run with the University of Nottingham.

The course promises to be extremely interesting, covering classical approaches to fitting dynamical models to data along with its main focus on Bayesian approaches, especially MCMC. Particularly pleased to be teaching alongside my colleagues Simon Preston and Theodore Kypraios.

Fitting models to data is a crucially important skill that has been somewhat neglected in mainstream mathematical biology and medicine so it is really great that Sara and Joanne have organized this and that Wellcome Trust has funded it. Do sign up!

New publication: The dynamic balance of import and export of zinc in Escherichia coli suggests a heterogeneous population response to stress

I am absolutely delighted to see the (online) publication today of our paper:

Takahashi H, Oshima T, Hobman JL, Doherty N, Clayton SR, Iqbal M, Hill PJ, Tobe T, Ogasawara N, Kanaya S and Stekel DJ 2015. The dynamic balance of import and export of zinc in Escherichia coli suggests a heterogeneous population response to stress. Journal of the Royal Society Interface DOI: .

The abstract is at the bottom of the post. First I want to say why I am so happy about this particular paper.

1. This is the first piece of work I have published in which I have made a successful funding application (I say “I” loosely, as Taku Oshima wrote the Japanese part of the bid along with Naotake Ogasawara, Shigehiko Kanaya and Toru Tobe, and Jon Hobman wrote much of the UK part of the bid; however, I was PI as this was a Systems Biology call); led the research (most of the hard work was done by Hiroki Takahashi and Taku Oshima); wrote the paper (different parts were written by different people – almost all authors made an important contribution); and have seen the paper published. A complete cycle of more than 5 years from grant application to publication.

2. This is the first paper on which I am corresponding author that contains new experimental results. More than that, I played an important role in devising many of the experiments (time courses and viable cell count assays) – not in terms of technical details (in which I have little expertise) but in terms of what experiments we need and why we need to do them.

3. This is the first time I have come a complete “Systems Biology” cycle: from experiments, to models, to predictions, to experimental confirmation, to a new model and then new predictions.

4. Some of the most important ideas in this paper came as a result of one of the most enjoyable weeks in my scientific career. Hiroki, Jon, Selina and I were all attending the Biometals Conference in Brussels in July 2012. While Hiroki and I attended a few sessions of the conference, most of the time we spent in our hotel lobby trying to get the model to fit the data. The first data we had were the LB data, which the model could fit without too much trouble. When Taku asked me what other data we needed, I said: “time series, with different concentrations of zinc”, and by the conference we had those data too. Only one problem: the model no longer fitted the data.

Hiroki and I spent that week trying to work out how to get the model to work. Each morning, we sat in the hotel lobby, and over endless cups of tea, we devised new versions of the model; each afternoon Hiroki would code them up, and then run them overnight on the supercomputer in Japan. And the next morning, the model would still not fit the data. By the last day we were tearing our hair out: nothing we could think of would work. We had one last (desperate) idea: ditch the 100uM zinc data. Boom! The model fitted the 12.5uM zinc data just fine! And this led to the heterogeneity hypothesis, the viable cell count assay, the stochastic model, and all the results that make this paper exciting. It is that kind of week that we go into careers in science for: the frustration and delight of grappling with and overcoming a difficult problem.

5. As alluded to in the previous points, it has been an absolute delight working with my coauthors on this paper, and I have many happy memories in the UK, Japan and Brussels.

6. Finally, on a more personal note: we received this funding on 17th March 2010. In between receiving the funding and having the paper published (5 years later) I have got married (July 2010), had a baby (July 2011), had another baby (November 2013) and am now more tired yet more happy than at any other point in my life 🙂

Now for the abstract!

Abstract

Zinc is essential for life, but toxic in excess. Thus all cells must control their internal zinc concentration. We used a systems approach, alternating rounds of experiments and models, to further elucidate the zinc control systems in Escherichia coli. We measured the response to zinc of the main specific zinc import and export systems in the wild-type, and a series of deletion mutant strains. We interpreted these data with a detailed mathematical model and Bayesian model fitting routines. There are three key findings: first, that alternate, non-inducible importers and exporters are important. Second, that an internal zinc reservoir is essential for maintaining the internal zinc concentration. Third, our data fitting led us to propose that the cells mount a heterogeneous response to zinc: some respond effectively, while others die or stop growing. In a further round of experiments, we demonstrated lower viable cell counts in the mutant strain tested exposed to excess zinc, consistent with this hypothesis. A stochastic model simulation demonstrated considerable fluctuations in the cellular levels of the ZntA exporter protein, reinforcing this proposal. We hypothesize that maintaining population heterogeneity could be a bet-hedging response allowing a population of cells to survive in varied and fluctuating environments.